Monday, June 15, 2026
- Jun 15
- 3 min read
Alaska
Alaska 2026 Salmon Harvest Forecast 40% Lower Despite Pink Salmon Gains
SeafoodNews by Peggy Parker - June 12, 2026
If pre-season forecasts prove accurate, 2026 will be a lean year for Alaska wild salmon across most species. Alaska's total harvest forecast calls for 56 million pink salmon, 49.7 million sockeye salmon, 17.2 million chum salmon, and 2.4 million coho salmon. If realized, the forecast for the 2026 total Alaska commercial salmon harvest will be approximately 125.5 million fish—nearly 40% fewer than last year.
However, pink salmon are two-year fish, and even years have traditionally seen smaller returns compared to larger odd-year runs. Comparing 2026's forecast of 56 million pink salmon—translating to 170 million pounds—against 2024's 120 million pounds, pink salmon represent a bright spot in the 2026 outlook.Alaska's summer salmon season began May 22 with the opening of the Copper River District drift gillnet fishery.
Bristol Bay's season opened June 1 and will reach peak landings in early to mid-July—often exceeding a million fish per day for several consecutive days.
Pink salmon landings from Southeast Alaska north to Prince William Sound and west to Kodiak and the Alaska Peninsula will also peak during this period. Chum salmon will be a major component of these landings, targeted in PWS and elsewhere. Coho salmon are caught from early September through November in smaller numbers throughout Alaska.
Sockeye
The Alaska sockeye forecast dropped 15% from the previous five-year average, driven by a 21% forecasted decline in Bristol Bay, the world's largest sockeye fishery. The record-high 2022 Bristol Bay sockeye harvest continues to elevate the five-year average.
The commercial outlook remains uncertain in Cook Inlet, where the Alaska Department of Fish & Game forecasted an "excellent" overall sockeye run for Upper Cook Inlet but has not issued a commercial-specific harvest forecast due to low run sizes and fisheries restrictions.
Following record-low levels in 2023, statewide Alaska sockeye ex-vessel prices increased in 2024 and 2025 but remained below the ten-year average. Wholesale sockeye values and early-season base pricing indicate strong potential for higher average ex-vessel prices in 2026.
Current ex-vessel prices of $1.21/lb reflect last year's $1.25/lb and a predicted $1.17/lb for this year, statewide.
Pink Salmon
Global pink salmon harvest is forecast to fall 17% in 2026 from the 2022/2024 average baseline. The decline is driven largely by forecasts in Russia, typically the world's largest pink salmon producer. Alaska's pink forecast is up from the previous even-numbered year but remains low compared to longer baselines. Landings are forecasted at 170 million pounds this year, compared to 2024's 120 million pounds. Alaska's harvest represents less than half of global pink salmon production.
Alaska pink salmon ex-vessel values dropped to their lowest level in more than a decade in 2024 and remained similarly depressed in 2025. Current prices of $0.30/lb match last year's levels and represent the lowest in the past ten years, according to McKinley Research Group.
Chum Salmon
Global chum salmon supply is also forecast to be historically low in 2026, given Alaska's low forecast and the collapse of Japanese chum runs over the past three years. McKinley reports an expected 110 million pounds harvest—identical to 2022 but lower than all other years in the past five years. Ex-vessel prices are expected around $0.54/lb, compared to last year's preliminary $0.60/lb and 2024's $0.58/lb.McKinley's harvest updates are scheduled to begin June 16 once a significant portion of the season's total harvest materializes.
International
3MMI - Europe Seafood Market June 2026: Weak Demand, Tight Supply, Firm Prices
Tradex Foods - June 15, 2026
European seafood markets are facing weak consumer demand, persistent inflation, and elevated operating costs, yet prices remain firm across many categories. Tight supplies in cod, mackerel, and octopus are offsetting softer demand, while shrimp, squid, and pangasius continue to offer attractive buying opportunities.
Environment/Science
7 Ways El Niño and Large Marine Heatwave Could Affect West Coast Marine Species
Dual influences may shift fisheries, could signal hard times for salmon.
NOAA Fisheries by staff - June 12, 2026
A large marine heatwave has bathed parts of the West Coast in very warm ocean waters over the past year, breaking temperature records in the Pacific.
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