Friday, July 11, 2025

Alaska Court affirms split federal-state salmon management system for Alaska’s Cook Inlet Alaska Beacon by Yereth Rosen - July 10, 2025 A federal judge has upheld the National Marine Fisheries Service’s new system to manage commercial harvests in federal waters of Cook Inlet, concluding that the agency has no obligation to extend that management to state waters. https://alaskabeacon.com/briefs/court-affirms-split-federal-state-salmon-management-system-for-alaskas-cook-inlet/ Copper River sockeye harvest hits 580K reds, down 73% Cordova Times by Margaret Bauman - July 10, 2025 Harvests of Copper River sockeye salmon remain at 73% below forecast – but the retail price for these premium reds remains high, with a 36-hour opener in progress on July 8, and the prospect of an increased harvest https://thecordovatimes.com/2025/07/10/copper-river-sockeye-hits-580k-reds-down-73/ Bristol Bay Landings are Now Just 5M Sockeye Short of Forecasted 35M Catch SeafoodNews.com by Peggy Parker - July 11, 2025 It is another endurance test in Bristol Bay for fishermen and processors to keep up with the annual phenomenon of 50 million sockeye salmon returning to five rivers within about 100 square miles, or one-third the size of New York City. And the majority of the run comes in over the course of just two weeks. https://www.seafoodnews.com/Story/1312449/Bristol-Bay-Landings-are-Now-Just-5M-Sockeye-Short-of-Forecasted-35M-Catch NOAA's Gulf of Alaska, Eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys underway despite staffing cuts KMXT by Davis Hovey - July 9, 2025  Multiple research vessels are out in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska this summer conducting surveys that inform stock assessments for fisheries managers. One of those surveys only happens every two years and comes during a challenging time for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA. https://www.kmxt.org/news/2025-07-09/noaas-gulf-of-alaska-eastern-bering-sea-bottom-trawl-surveys-underway-despite-staffing-cuts

Are Alaska’s fish getting smaller? That may not be such a bad thing

KTUU by Jayce Bertrand - July 9, 2025 

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - For over 30 years, the Valdez Fishing Derby has awarded thousands of dollars to the lucky few who have the largest catch by the end of the season.

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2025/07/09/are-alaskas-fish-getting-smaller-that-may-not-be-such-bad-thing/

International Trump Imposes 35% Tariff on Canadian Imports, Sparking Uncertainty in Seafood Trade Expana by Ryan Doyle - July 11, 2025 US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 35% tariff on all Canadian goods entering the US on July 10, a move that could send shockwaves through seafood industries on both sides of the border. The tariff will take effect on August 1.The news arrived via a Trump tariff letter addressed to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump’s letter criticized Canada for its efforts to stop fentanyl from entering the US. Trump said Canada had chosen to retaliate with its own retaliatory tariffs rather than cooperate, prompting his steep escalation.Trump also highlighted the US trade deficit with the neighboring nation and the impact Canada’s tariffs have on US dairy farmers in the message.The latest letter is part of a growing collection of Trump missives sent to world leaders, each outlining new or revised US tariff rates amid mounting global trade tensions. Expana has the complete list here.The 35% tariff marks a significant increase from the 25% levy Trump imposed on Canada earlier this year, which was later rescinded.Trump's new rate would send shockwaves through the seafood industry. In 2024, Canada was the top seafood trading partner with the US, sending over nearly $4 billion worth of seafood. Salmon, snow crab and lobster were atop the list for most valuable species imported into the US in 2024.Lobster trade in the crosshairsExpana market reporter Liz Cuozzo highlighted that the tariff could significantly disrupt the lobster trade. The US–Canada lobster trade flow is symbiotic, with each country importing from the other during their respective peak production seasons to maintain year-round market stability. In 2024, total U.S. lobster imports from Canada—including live, in-shell (tails and whole cooked), meat, and tails—totaled 97.36 million pounds.Canada remains the dominant supplier to the US, with peak volumes arriving during the Canadian spring season and again in the fall, when Maine landings begin to taper off ahead of the winter months."If enacted, the proposed tariff would sharply raise replacement costs, complicate sourcing strategies, and place additional strain on an already tight supply chain," Cuozzo said. "Product priced out of the US market would likely be diverted to alternative destinations such as China and the European Union. Even then, Canada does face a 25% tariff on lobster exports to China as well.""Industry stakeholders have expressed concern over potential price volatility, trade disruption and longer-term impacts on consumer access and affordability," Cuozzo added. "With seasonal demand expected to climb in the coming months, the outcome of this tariff decision will be closely watched throughout the global supply chain."The US seafood industry, notably the lobster industry in Maine, had expressed its worries over a tariff on Canadian goods earlier this year. Maine’s former Marine Resources Commissioner Patrick Keliher said the tariffs could “cripple” the state’s lobster fishery, according to NHPR.Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) also pressed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the extent of the seafood connection between Canada and Maine, as the majority of lobsters are processed in Canada.Before Trump's letter, Lutnick had indicated that products previously compliant under the USMCA would be exempt from tariffs, as Expana reported last month. The exemptions would significantly mitigate the impact of the tariffs on many seafood products.Currently, it remains unclear whether USMCA-compliant products will again be exempt following Trump's letter. Amid previous negotiations, both parties had expected the exemptions to remain in place. Reuters reported that Trump had yet to make a final decision on the matter on July 10.Canadian snow crab industry may have dodged tariff troublesCanadian snow crab stakeholders may be breathing a collective sigh of relief, given how their season aligned with recent tariff uncertainties over the past several months, Expana's Seafood Managing Wditor Janice Schreiber explained.The vast majority of Canadian snow crab is harvested between April and August. According to Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), the Gulf of St. Lawrence snow crab fishery has already reached 100% of its quota, while Newfoundland’s fishery is currently at 88% completion."This seasonality may have helped the industry avoid the brunt of potential tariff impacts, effectively dodging a proverbial bullet," Schreiber said.In terms of volume, US imports of Canadian snow crab reached 60.2 million pounds through May 2025—up 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. Last year, Canada exported a total of 117.8 million pounds of snow crab to the USCanadian salmon market facing pressureCanadian salmon imports totaled 178.2 million pounds in 2024. Through May 2025, 66.8 million pounds have entered the US, down approximately 25% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024. Of last year’s total, approximately 83%—or 148.6 million pounds—was fresh whole fish trucked across the border, the primary form of Canadian salmon entering the US market.  So far in 2025, 55.4 million pounds of fresh whole fish have been imported.Josh Bickert, market reporter for Expana, noted that with the proposed tariff, salmon sellers would likely redirect product away from the US toward alternative markets such as the EU and Asia, along with an added focus on domestic sales. Bickert noted that production may also slow, as was the case during April when output dipped before the US granted USMCA seafood exemptions."Given the reliance of the US market on Canadian whole fish, domestic buyers may increasingly turn to alternative sources such as the EU, the UK, and Chile," Bickert said. "With trade negotiations unsettled for the EU and the potential for similarly high tariffs, both the UK and Chile may become more attractive options for US buyers, as tariffs on their product still appear to remain at the baseline 10% for now."Earlier this year, when Trump threatened to impose the initial 25% tariff, the Canadian seafood industry raised alarm bells over the potential impact of tariffs, as Expana highlighted at the time.Here's the letter Trump sent to Carney later in the evening on July 10: https://www.seafoodnews.com/Story/1312510/Trump-Imposes-35-percent-Tariff-on-Canadian-Imports-Sparking-Uncertainty-in-Seafood-Trade Trump’s latest tariff threats maintain high rates on multiple countries, including top seafood exporters to US Seafood Source by Chris Chase - July 9, 2025 U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats will see 14 countries face a 25 percent or higher tariff by 1 August if they don’t reach agreements with the U.S. https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-trade/trump-s-latest-tariff-threats-maintain-high-rates-on-top-seafood-exporters-to-us *Requires Subscription Federal Register Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Groundfish Trawl Catcher Processor Economic Data Report (EDR) A Notice by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on 07/11/2025 The Department of Commerce, in accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (PRA), invites the general public and other Federal agencies to comment on proposed, and continuing information collections, which helps us assess the impact of our information collection requirements and minimize the public's reporting burden. The purpose of this notice is to allow for 60 days of public comment preceding submission of the collection to OMB. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/07/11/2025-13024/agency-information-collection-activities-submission-to-the-office-of-management-and-budget-omb-for Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Alaska Chinook Salmon Economic Data Report (EDR) A Notice by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on 07/11/2025 The Department of Commerce, in accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (PRA), invites the general public and other Federal agencies to comment on proposed, and continuing information collections, which helps us assess the impact of our information collection requirements and minimize the public's reporting burden. The purpose of this notice is to allow for 60 days of public comment preceding submission of the collection to OMB. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/07/11/2025-13034/agency-information-collection-activities-submission-to-the-office-of-management-and-budget-omb-for Opinion The Winding Glass: Seafood Trade Disruptions Reappear While Economic Headwinds Drive Prices Down SeafoodNews by John Sackton, Founder - July 11, 2025 [The Winding Glass is the opinion and commentary column by John Sackton, Founder of SeafoodNews] The economic collapse many of us feared from President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policies has not materialized—at least not yet. The seafood industry has shown remarkable resilience in the face of disruptive trade policy. But that’s not the same as being immune. The more pressing issue is weakening consumer demand.That lede was written 48 hours ago. Now it’s out of date. Trump has since threatened tariffs on Brazil (tilapia), Vietnam (tuna, catfish, shrimp), and Canada. The earlier thesis—that a tariff-induced disaster hadn’t occurred—now needs revision.There were three reasons the threat seemed to recede. First, political bias shapes how people perceive economic risks. Trump opponents like myself see threats to the global trading system as existential. We emphasize the risk of long-term damage. Trump supporters downplay risk and focus on short-term wins. This split shapes media coverage, investment and sentiment. But surviving the first two months of tariff chaos doesn’t mean we’ll survive what comes next. That’s where we are now: mostly unscathed, but with real long-term risks ahead.The biggest risk is Trump himself. When you don’t have a clear goal and only respond in ways that enhance or detract from personal power, stable international relationships become impossible. I thought that risk had receded because I kept trying to believe that the US government acts rationally by weighing the costs and benefits of its decisions. And I keep getting proved wrong. The long-term risk is that we will never have a stable system as long as Trump is in power, and we will continue to lurch from one trade crisis to another. That creates huge economic losses.Second, the size of the US economy provides a cushion. At roughly 25% of global GDP, we have more purchasing power than the next six G7 countries combined. That scale gives us momentum. But signs of erosion are clear. The dollar is weaker, foreign investors are pulling back, and public investment and industrial capacity are fraying. Still, this isn’t 2008. It’s not a collapse—just steady erosion. The seafood sector reflects this broader dynamic.Third, the structure of the seafood industry has offered protection. Our seafood trade accounts for just 11% of global trade, while our GDP share is 25%. The EU, China, Japan and Norway account for nearly 50% of the global seafood trade, five times more than the US. Most seafood trade doesn’t involve us. That makes seafood a smaller part of our economy and explains why we’ve avoided the kinds of supply chain damage seen in the auto industry and steel users.Our imports are also concentrated in non-tariff countries. Canada accounts for 27% of imports, with the value in April–May up 22% over historical averages. Chile represents 14% and Norway 8%. Norway’s share is up 45% from previous years.The data supports the view that we are experiencing supply chain resilience and economic headwinds.  Unfortunately, things can change on a dime.  The threat against Canada for now exempts products under the USMCA, including Canadian seafood. But with no clear goals, lack of trust and the possibility of a miscalculation by Trump or the Canadians, that exemption could vanish overnight. Trump has just raised the risk level for every seafood dealer relying on Canadian products.April and May proved that the initial tariff threats were hollow for the seafood industry. The core import market grew 3.6% in volume compared to historical averages. That’s not what you see in a disrupted supply chain—it’s a functioning market.But while volumes held or grew, prices fell. Average value dropped 5.1% across all major categories. Fresh Atlantic salmon fell 18.4%. Frozen tuna dropped 17%. Live lobster declined 13%. These are not supply disruptions—this is demand destruction.Where supply was actually constrained—cod and haddock—prices rose. This indicates that when supply is limited, prices tend to increase.Among the top 20 seafood products, 10 experienced supplier shifts of greater than 15% during April and May compared to prior years. Among China-dependent categories, 5 of 8 successfully diversified. Frozen Alaska pollock saw China’s share fall from 93% to 79%, picked up by Canada and Indonesia. Frozen tilapia fell from 58% to 35% with China’s share offset by Taiwan and Vietnam.Some major categories remained stable. Shrimp, for example, increased by 9% in volume despite a 3.3% shift in suppliers. Import value fell by only 3.3%.Source: SeafoodDatasearch and Global Trade TrackerSalmon is our second-largest imported item after shrimp. Fresh fillet volumes held stable overall, but Norway gained share over Chile. During this period, the import value fell by 10%, indicating market headwinds. Norway and Chile are in similar tariff categories.Fresh salmon volume remained stable, but its value decreased by 18%. UK and Faroe suppliers gained market share over Canada, driven by economic and production factors, rather than tariffs.Crab and lobster showed supply stability, but lobster prices dropped due to weak demand. Canadian exporters avoided flooding the live market with lobster diverted from China, likely due to poor US demand. Instead, they sent product into frozen processing. Frozen imports rose 24% in April–May, while value fell just 6%.Tariff risks are concentrated in tilapia, frozen tuna, catfish and China-sourced Alaska pollock. Together, these make up about 16.7% of US imports.The deeper risk comes from the unpredictable and chaotic way Trump conducts trade “negotiations.”   For example, the Vietnam tariff was said to be 20%. But as of July 10, the Vietnamese believed they had agreed to 11%. No deal was confirmed. This chaos means no agreement can be trusted—even after it’s announced. Trump disregards Congress and trade law. Long-term uncertainty raises costs for all importers and deters investment, regardless of final tariff levels.The original tariff vulnerability chart below showed Canada as green, or low risk. That has changed based on Trump’s overnight tweet.Source: SeafoodDatasearch and Global Trade TrackerTilapia fillet imports recently shifted heavily to Brazil—now at risk of tariff disruption. And uncertainty has returned over the future of Canadian seafood exports.Overall, April–May data shows that supply chains have adapted, protecting the industry from direct tariff impacts. China-dependent products show more disruption but represent a small share of the total value. Whole frozen tilapia saw China’s share drop from 58% to 35%. Frozen Alaska pollock dropped from 93% to 79%, with Brazil, Panama, and Vietnam picking up share. In many cases, volume held steady despite supplier changes. This shows how structurally flexible the seafood trade has become.But values are down. Fresh salmon dropped 18.4%. Frozen tuna, 17%. Live lobster, 13%. All with stable volumes.So far, seafood has avoided serious tariff damage, thanks to years of supply chain improvements. But consumer demand is sagging. Volume is holding up because sourcing has held up—but prices are falling because buyers aren’t spending.That’s the long-term risk. Supply chains can’t protect the industry if consumers can’t afford seafood. Premium segments are under pressure. Snow crab never reached the hoped-for prices this spring. If tariff chaos leads to inflation or depresses spending, seafood won’t be spared.The real threat isn’t another tariff on Brazil. It’s declining consumer confidence, economic instability, and falling demand. Brazil also exports coffee and ground beef. If a 50% tariff is imposed, burger and coffee prices will rise—and consumers will notice. That’s how tariff chaos feeds back into our market: by weakening demand.We can’t drive demand just with nimble supply chains. Our long-term health depends on efficient global logistics and a stable economic framework. We need government that values predictability—not one that amplifies risk at every turn. https://www.seafoodnews.com/Story/1312485/The-Winding-Glass-Seafood-Trade-Disruptions-Reappear-While-Economic-Headwinds-Drive-Prices-Down

Pacific Seafood Processors Association 1900 W Emerson Place Suite 205, Seattle, WA 98119 Phone: 206.281.1667 E-mail: admin@pspafish.net; Website: www.pspafish.net Our office days/hours are Monday-Friday8:00 A.M. - 5:00 P.M. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. *Inclusion of a news article, report, or other document in this email does not imply PSPA support or endorsement of the information or opinion expressed in the document.