Friday, November 14, 2025
- admin04655
- 7 days ago
- 7 min read
Alaska
2026 Bristol Bay Sockeye Run Forecast of 45.32 Million, 12 Percent Below 2025’s Forecast
SeafoodNews by Peggy Parker - November 14, 2025
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) released its forecast for the 2026 Bristol Bay salmon season yesterday, predicting a run of 45.32 million and a catch of 32.26 million sockeye. This is 26% smaller than the most recent 10-year average of 61.0 million fish and 21% greater than the long-term average of 37.40 million fish (1963–2025).
Yesterday's forecast compared to last year’s final forecast, also released in November, for a 2025 run of 51.3 million and a forecasted catch of 34.8 million. The actual catch was 41.2 million in 2025, 23% higher than the 20-year average of 33.6 million for all districts.
“Since 2006, our preseason forecasts have under-forecasted the actual run by 14% on average, ranging from 36% below in 2014 to 21% above in 2011,” state salmon managers noted in a statement.
Like last year, this year’s prediction for 2026 is considered “strong”, meaning it falls within a range from 43 million to 55 million sockeye returning to the Bay. The calculated range for the 2026 forecast is from 31 to 59.5 million sockeye.
The forecast is the sum of individual predictions from nine river systems — Kvichak, Alagnak, Naknek, Egegik, Ugashik, Wood, Igushik, Nushagak, and Togiak Rivers — and four age classes (ages 1.2, 1.3, 2.2, and 2.3). Salmon age classes describe the number of years in fresh water followed by the number of years in the ocean. Adult escapement and return data from brood years 1972–2021 were used in the analyses for most rivers.
The forecasted harvest for individual rivers in 2026 are:
NAKNEK-KVICHAK
- Kvichak R. 1.91 million
- Alagnak R. 1.54 million
- Naknek R. 2.79 million
N-K District Total 6.23 million
EGEGIK District 7.53 million
UGASHIK District 4.26 million
NUSHAGAK
- Wood 4.16 million
- Igushak .98 million
- Nushagak 9.62 million
N District Total: 13.86 million
The age and number of the fish returning to Bristol Bay are forecasted to be: 20 million age-1.3 fish (44% of the total run), 16 million age-1.2 fish (35% of the total run), 5.38 million age-2.2 fish (12% of the total run), and 3.85 million age-2.3 fish (8% of the total run).
The 2025 harvest of 41.2 million sockeye was comprised of 61% 3-ocean fish and 38% 2-ocean fish, almost exactly as predicted. The average weight of 5.1 pounds is slightly higher than the recent 5-year average of 4.9 pounds due to the large number of 3-ocean fish, but ADF&G noted that weight at age was below average for most age classes.
Each year, the department recognizes the efforts of other groups that contribute to keeping the Bristol Bay salmon fishery sustainable.
“The department would like to acknowledge the Bristol Bay Fisheries Collaborative (BBFC) for its support of Bristol Bay fisheries. The collaborative is an agreement between the department, Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute (BBSRI), and other contributors to work together and with stakeholders to maintain the management system for this world-class fishery,” the agency said in a press release. A list of organizations that committed financial support to the BBFC can be found at https://www.bbsri.org/bbfc.
A second forecast for Bristol Bay is expected later this month from the University of Washington’s Fisheries Research Institute, but in August, they released their preliminary preseason forecast of a run size of 45.8 million sockeye and a projected harvest of 29.7 million (164 million pounds). Notably, UW-FRI predicts an average weight of sockeye in 2026 of 5.5 pounds. The forecast predicts the run will be made up of ages 1.2 (19.8 million or 43.3% of the total run) and 1.3 (17.7 million for 38.7%).
International
US Congress establishes USDA seafood liaison, bans Chinese seafood from school lunches
Seafood Source by Nathan Strout - November 13, 2025
The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, with Republicans garnering enough support in the Senate to pass a continuing resolution that will keep the government funded into January.
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US pollock industry steps up marketing in South Korea
GAPP is working to win over South Korean buyers, launching a new website as Alaska pollock faces stiff competition from Russian suppliers.
Intrafish by Rachel Sapin - November 13, 2025
The Association of Genuine Alaska Pollock Producers (GAPP) has launched a Korean-language website to strengthen its position in South Korea, a market where data shows that US-caught caught Alaska pollock faces significant competition from Russian suppliers.
Labeling and Marketing
Industry Hears What's Working For Retail and Foodservice Sectors at ASMI’s All Hands Meeting
SeafoodNews by Peggy Parker - November 13, 2025
Last week, leaders in Alaska’s seafood industry heard from Circana and Technomic about retail and foodservice trends in seafood, including a deep dive into what motivates consumers to buy more seafood today.
The audience of seafood executives — from CEOs to vessel captains — are all members of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI), attending the annual All Hands meeting for four days to share research and analysis with real-world experience in harvesting, processing, distribution, and marketing.
“There are five mega trends driving food sales in retail,” began Chris DuBois of Circana. They are:
Economic uncertainty — Rising unemployment and inflation causing households to finally pull back on food spending;
Return to office — A moderate rise in commuting to the workplace is creating demand for convenient and on-the go solutions;
Versatility — Foods and beverages today are becoming more flexible in how and when consumers use them. “Snack foods” might form a meal, “beverages” might be a snack, as consumers look for solutions to needs throughout the day;
Protein — Consumer demand for protein remains high as diet strategies including GLP-1 medications (those using a glucagon-like peptide-1 hormone, which regulates blood sugar levels and appetite and is also used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity) keep protein at the forefront of what consumers seek.
Eating-at-home — Dining in meets the need for affordability and healthier options.
Economic uncertainty is bolstered by mixed regulatory messages of tariffs, high inflation expectations, and a tightening labor market, DuBois noted.
“Consumers are facing 30%+ higher F&B prices compared to 2019, and wages have not kept up,” he explained.
YOY comparisons on price change and accelerated growth showed that coffee and meat experienced price per volume percent changes of 18.8 and 14.5, respectively, in the last four weeks ending September 7, while shellfish increased by only 6.2 percent during that time.
The office occupancy rate is 52%, higher than it has been since the pandemic, and commuters are seeking high-protein snacks and lunches more than before.
Among poultry, beef, pork, and seafood, only seafood showed a slight increase in protein eaten at home in the last year.
Total seafood sales have grown 3.1% in retail stores, much of it in the deli (10%) and sushi (7.9%) departments. Other departments have grown by an average of 3%, according to Circana's research.
For refrigerated and frozen finfish, halibut beat all other species for growth in dollar sales.
Joe Pawlak from Technomic noted that retail and foodservice have almost equal portions of the overall food market in the US with foodservice sales at $1,050 billion and retail at $1,032 billion.
Challenges for foodservice operators include food cost increases, higher labor costs, tariffs, and non-wage labor issues. Pawlak noted there has been a 40% increase in restaurant wages from March 2020 to March 2025.
Amid this dire analysis, there is a slightly brighter outlook for 2026.
Pawlak noted there are four reasons for optimism in 2026:
- More economic certainty
- Stronger wage growth
- Lower interest rates
- Weaker comp base
“Meaningful traffic growth is expected to return once wage growth catches up to menu inflation,” Pawlak said. “Or once menu inflation drops to wage-level growth.”
Pawlak noted that foodservice F&B is heavily insulated from high tariff impacts, but there is “no silver bullet driving sales.”
More bright spots on the Technomic analysis of growth areas included consumers preference to increase their consumption of seafood over all other proteins, including nuts. Seafood was the most popular choice among seven options, ranging from proteins to green beans, at 43%, with nuts following at 28%.
Millennial consumers (33-48 years old) and Gen Z (18-32) are the fastest-growing demographics for seafood consumption, with 31% and 29% of those surveyed reporting that they are eating more seafood this year than last.
The primary motives for these consumers are health (36%), taste (28%), and a desire for more variety (27%).
For Alaska seafood specifically, “freshness” and “taste” were the two most often used descriptors by consumers. Using the adjective ‘Alaska’ for seafood caught there brings positive connotations to consumers. The regional designation of Alaska seafood ranked second only to ‘Angus’ beef as likely for consumers to recommend.
Pawlak told the audience that his four recommendations for growth in 2026 are:
- Highlight increased consumer demand to further increase menuing,
- Promote the affordability of seafood (especially compared to beef),
- Emphasize consumer preference for the Alaska brand, and
- Articulate sustainability efforts.
FYI’s
CELEBRATE WILD ALASKA, ITS 50 MILLION SOCKEYE SALMON, AND ITS FISHERMEN
Celebrate wild salmon straight from Bristol Bay, Alaska!
Seattle area restaurants will feature Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon dishes on their menus Nov. 17-23, 2025. This culinary celebration connects wild sockeye salmon from Alaska’s wildwaters to exceptional restaurants in Seattle, a city that is home to many Alaska fishermen.
Pacific Seafood Processors Association
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