Alaska
IPHC’s 2020 Stock Assessment Projects 6.5% Increase in Halibut Catches Possible for 2021
SeafoodNews.com by Peggy Parker - November 20, 2020
Pacific Halibut appears to be holding its own, with an encouraging — if small — indication that overall weight of Catch Per Unit of Effort (CPUE), a proxy for abundance, went up by 6% coastwide.
CPUE is one of hundreds of other data points that are part of an ensemble model that International Pacific Halibut Commission senior scientist Dr. Ian Stewart uses. The model has a good track record. So far, the biomass is doing as the model has predicted for the past eight years.
The bottom line today is IPHC’s scientific advice for the 2021 commercial catch is 39 million pounds, a 7 million pound increase in last year’s advice of 31.9 million pounds. But that advice, also called Reference TCEY (Total Constant Exploitable Yield), is only 2.4 million pounds above 2020's actual total catch limit of 36.6 mlbs, adopted by the six-member panel of U.S. and Canadian Commissioners.
Variations from the annual scientific advice come from considerations the Commissioners must balance between the two countries and conditions within each regulatory area, against harm to the spawning stock biomass. Commissioners increased total catch in two of the last three years, from 31 mlbs to 37.21 mlbs in 2018 and from 31.9 mlbs to 36.6 mlbs in 2020. In 2019, the lowered the final catch limit from the Reference TCEY of 40 mlbs to 38.61 mlbs.
Each of eight regulatory areas ranging from California to the Bering Strait share the coastwide FCEY (Fishery Constant Exploitable Yield) of adult halibut after by-catch (all sizes) in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, recreational landings and subsistence catch are taken off the top.
In the eight regulatory areas, CPUE is up in four and down in four this year. Those changes in all are in single digits except in Area 2B (British Columbia) which is down 10% and Area 3A (Gulf of Alaska) which is up 24%.
Commissioners, with input from harvesters, processors, and other stakeholders will use Stewart's Reference TCEY and other scientific advice to determine catch limits at the IPHC’s annual meeting January 25-29, 2021.
The Reference TCEY’s for 2021 are as follows, all in million pounds:
2A 1.65
2B 7.00
2C 5.16
3A 4.11
3B 3.12
4A. 2.51
4B. 1.47
4CDE 3.98
Total: 39.00
“Spawning biomass trends continue downward, although the 2020 assessment reports less decline than anticipated, partly as a function of mortality reductions in 2020," Stewart noted in his presentation.
“The 2011 and 2012 year-classes, estimated to be stronger than any since 2005 remain uncertain and are highly important to short-term projections of stock and fishery dynamics,” he said.
But the uncertainty in the size of the 2011 and 2012 year-classes is high.
Compared to the magnitude of the 2005 year class, which was estimated to be very large when it was first seen (in trawl surveys, before they were large enough to enter the commercial fishery), the estimates of the 2011 and 2012 year-classes range “from below to above the magnitude of the [estimated] 2005 year-class. Even with a third year of observation from the FISS, and now a year from the commercial fishery, these two important year-classes remain uncertain,” Stewart said.
Coastwide commercial landings in 2020 of about 22.7 million pounds were down 6% from 2019. Discard mortality, mostly from non-directed trawlers in the Bering Sea was about 5.0 million pounds in 2020, down 23% from 2019 and the smallest estimate in many years.
The difference between a tiny decrease in the number of halibut (1% decline) and the increase in weight (6%) means that current members of the biomass have grown in the past year, but few if any new recruits have entered the fishery.
“The results of the 2020 stock assessment indicate that the Pacific halibut stock declined continuously from the late 1990s to around 2012. That trend is estimated to have been largely a result of decreasing size-at-age, as well as somewhat weaker recruitment strengths than those observed during the 1980s,” Stewart said.
The spawning biomass increased gradually to 2016, and then decreased to the current level of about 192 million pounds.
That estimate puts the halibut biomass at 33% of its unfished state. The unfished state is a reference point stock managers use to set other reference points to protect the sustainability of the stock. IPHC uses two as guard rails to avoid when setting catch limits: 20% of the unfished stock is required to enough reproduction to achieve sustainability, 30% of the unfished spawning biomass (SB30) is a trigger reference point to take immediate action to avoid the 20%. The current size of the stock is listed as not being overfished, but it is just above 30%. In Stewart's Risk Table, another tool for Commissioners to use when setting catch limits, that level means there is a 41% chance of being below the IPHC trigger reference point of SB30% in the next year (2022), and less than a 1% chance of being below the IPHC limit reference point of SB20% in that time.
“Projections indicate that mortality consistent with the interim management procedure reference fishing intensity (F43%) is likely to result in further declining biomass levels in the near future,” Stewart said.
https://www.seafoodnews.com/Story/1185847/IPHCs-2020-Stock-Assessment-Projects-6-point-5-percent-Increase-in-Halibut-Catches-Possible-for-2021
Environment/Science
State fisheries scientist tackles marine ecology of salmon off Alaska’s coast
KFSK by Joe Viechnicki - November 19, 2020
The state of Alaska now has a scientist at work trying to tackle the big question – what’s happening to Alaska salmon once they’re in the ocean environment?
https://www.kfsk.org/2020/11/19/state-fisheries-scientist-tackles-marine-ecology-of-salmon-off-alaskas-coast/
Labeling and Marketing
3MMI - Chum, Sockeye, Halibut All Short; What Should You Do?
TradexFoods - November 23, 2020
With a strong fresh market and continued consumer demand, we don't believe there will be much H&G Sockeye's after December and 2-4lb will remain short for the foreseeable future and the market will hit a point where Chums will be unavailable. Despite a season that took place through the COVID-19 pandemic on a premium white-tablecloth item, H&G Halibut and Fletches will be short for the coming month.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al73iywGoI0&feature=emb_logo
Industry Updates: Year in review, looking ahead to 2021
National Fisherman by Jessica Hathaway - November 18 , 2020
The Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute hosts its annual All Hands on Deck meetings this week virtually, complete with ASMI Zoom backgrounds. Expo Online has teamed up with the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, the Genuine Alaska Pollock Producers and the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen's Associations to bring you annual updates on West Coast and Alaska fisheries.
https://www.nationalfisherman.com/national-international/industry-updates-year-in-review-looking-ahead-to-2021
Federal Register
Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Pacific Cod in the Bering Sea Subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Management Area
A Rule by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on 11/23/2020
NMFS is prohibiting directed fishing for Pacific cod, except for the Community Development Quota program (CDQ), in the Bering Sea subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands management area (BSAI). This action is necessary to prevent exceeding the non-CDQ allocation of the 2020 Pacific cod total allowable catch (TAC) in the Bering Sea subarea of the BSAI.
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/11/23/2020-25834/fisheries-of-the-exclusive-economic-zone-off-alaska-pacific-cod-in-the-bering-sea-subarea-of-the
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